ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s northern mountainous region faces a growing threat from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) as rising temperatures accelerate glacier melt and unchecked urban development increases the vulnerability of downstream communities, according to the Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco).
The national space agency has intensified satellite monitoring of glacial lakes during the ongoing monsoon season, warning that uncontrolled construction near a glacial lake-fed stream on the outskirts of Gilgit has significantly increased the risk of flooding.
According to Suparco, a sudden glacial lake outburst flood or an episode of intense monsoon rainfall could trigger flash floods, debris flows and widespread damage, putting lives, homes, livestock and businesses at risk.
Satellite imagery comparing conditions in 2013 and 2023 shows rapid urban expansion along the natural stream corridor, which is fed by glacial lakes located upstream. The agency said the continued growth of residential and commercial development in this hazard-prone area has increased exposure to climate-related disasters.
Suparco noted that buildings have spread across the stream’s natural floodplain and alluvial fan, reducing the channel’s capacity to safely carry large volumes of water during periods of heavy rainfall or glacier-related flooding. As a result, nearby communities face a much higher flood risk.
The agency attributed the growing threat to weak enforcement of land-use regulations and inadequate urban planning, warning that unchecked construction in vulnerable areas has significantly increased disaster risks.
To improve preparedness, Suparco continues to monitor glaciers, rivers and glacial lakes through satellite technology. The information is shared with relevant authorities to support early warning systems, hazard assessments and disaster response planning across climate-vulnerable regions.
The latest satellite assessment has identified 131 potentially dangerous glacial lakes, one more than the previous count of 130. The findings have been submitted to the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination’s Technical Committee on GLOF Monitoring for further action.
Based on satellite images captured on June 16, the agency found that 40 glacial lakes are currently unfrozen, compared with only 24 recorded two weeks earlier. Officials said the increase reflects accelerated seasonal melting driven by rising temperatures.
While most of the unfrozen lakes remain within their historical maximum boundaries, Suparco warned that any lake expanding beyond its previous limits requires close observation. Larger lakes place additional pressure on natural moraine dams, increasing the likelihood of a glacial lake outburst flood.
The agency has urged disaster management authorities to remain on high alert throughout the monsoon season, particularly in downstream valleys located below potentially dangerous glacial lakes.
According to the EM-DAT International Disaster Database, Pakistan has experienced 89 major flood events over the past 25 years. Experts say the impacts of flooding have intensified due to expanding settlements and infrastructure development in riverbeds, floodplains and other high-risk areas.
Muhammad Saleem Shaikh, spokesperson for the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination, said rising temperatures are rapidly transforming the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya mountain range, accelerating glacier melt and increasing the likelihood of glacial lake outburst floods, flash floods and landslides.
He said scientific evidence indicates that Pakistan’s mountain ecosystems are changing at an unprecedented rate, exposing downstream communities, agricultural land, public infrastructure and essential services to greater climate-related risks.
Shaikh added that Pakistan’s first national glacier inventory, completed in 2024, identified more than 13,000 glaciers, giving the country one of the world’s largest glacier reserves outside the polar regions.
He said the government is working closely with Suparco, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), provincial governments and international development partners to strengthen satellite monitoring, hazard mapping, early warning systems and community-based climate adaptation measures aimed at reducing future disaster risks.
