The Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS), Islamabad, on 27 January 2026 hosted a guest lecture examining the post-2025 strategic environment in South Asia and the prospects for managed stability between India and Pakistan.
Titled “The Future of India-Pakistan Relations in 2026,” the session brought together academics and security experts to assess evolving regional dynamics following the May 2025 conflict and its implications for relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
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Moderating the discussion, Air Marshal (Retd) Zahid Mehmood said the 2025 war had significantly reshaped South Asia’s strategic landscape. He noted that future conflicts are increasingly likely to be defined by multi-domain warfare involving air, cyber, space and maritime domains, complicating escalation management. He added that shifting geopolitical alignments and emerging regional flashpoints are expected to sustain instability, necessitating more adaptive security approaches.
In her address, Dr Maria Sultan, President of the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI), said the May 2025 war—particularly Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos—represented a structural shift in the nature of India-Pakistan confrontation. She argued that future conflicts are likely to be dominated by air power and high-tempo aerial operations, supported by cyber, space, maritime and intelligence domains, rather than large-scale land warfare.
Dr Sultan observed that earlier strategic assumptions had focused on the southern theatre as the primary arena for conventional conflict. However, she said recent developments indicate that the northern theatre is likely to emerge as the main zone of high-intensity warfare, with supporting operations elsewhere.
She further noted that deterrence dynamics have evolved, with precision strikes now extending deeper into mainland territories rather than remaining confined to border areas. Despite the intensity of the four-day conflict, the absence of large-scale land mobilisation suggested a preference for limited, fast-paced, multi-domain operations over prolonged conventional campaigns. She cautioned that future crises may increasingly target economic and strategic infrastructure, even as efforts continue to geographically contain escalation. Emerging developments in eastern regions, she added, could also elevate previously marginal theatres in future conflict scenarios.
Looking ahead, Dr Sultan said there were no clear indicators of meaningful de-escalation, warning that 2026 may be marked by managed hostility, recurring crises and sustained mistrust. She emphasised the need for improved crisis management and risk reduction, including strengthening military communication channels, reviving back-channel diplomacy, restoring water data-sharing mechanisms and pursuing limited confidence-building measures through economic, diplomatic and multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Track-II forums.
In his concluding remarks, Air Marshal (Retd) Javaid Ahmed, President of CASS, said India faces challenges in effectively integrating advanced technologies into its military structure. He noted that modern weapons systems are increasing the complexity of naval conflict and said the loss of aircraft during the 2025 crisis led to a degree of strategic paralysis within the Indian Air Force. He added that future conflicts are likely to rely more heavily on air assets, including unmanned systems and missile engagements, and assessed that Pakistan currently retains a relative advantage in the air domain, shaping the regional balance of power.
