ISLAMABAD: The IMF has estimated that the federal government’s debt will reach a record high of 81.8 trillion rupees by the end of this fiscal year, while the budget deficit and interest payments will also exceed budget estimates.
Due to the unrealistic budget figures, the IMF has issued a new assessment, which has been discussed with the Pakistani authorities during recent negotiations, according to which the federal government’s budget will be 15.4 trillion rupees, which is the current budget. 1.1 thousand billion rupees more than the budget estimate approved by the National Assembly at the beginning of the financial year.
Official sources say that the IMF has estimated public debt and guarantees at 81.8 trillion rupees, which is 77.3 percent of GDP, while the budget deficit, which was previously set at 6.9 trillion rupees, Now it is estimated at 8.2 thousand billion rupees, which is 1.3 thousand billion rupees more than the previous estimate.
Sources of the Ministry of Finance say that the main reason for the change in the estimates is the unrealistic figures of income, expenditure and interest payments. are nominally higher than estimates.
Loan volume increased by 7.7% on annual basis
It may be recalled that two months ago, the Express Tribune had reported that interest payments had exceeded budget estimates by Rs 1,000 billion, while the government was also facing an external financing gap of $4.5 billion.
According to the sources, in the budget, the Ministry of Finance estimated the interest payments at 7.3 thousand billion rupees, but during the recent negotiations, this estimate has been estimated at 8.5 thousand billion rupees, which is still 140 billion rupees less than the new estimate of the IMF. Is.
The IMF has estimated the interest payments on domestic debt at 7.5 thousand billion rupees, which is 1.1 thousand billion rupees more than the budget estimate, while the interest payments on external debt has been estimated at 1.02 thousand billion rupees, which is 150 billion rupees more than the budget estimate. Billion rupees more.
A significant reduction of 1675 billion rupees in total debts of Pakistan
Apart from rampant spending, the other major reason for the increase in debt and interest payments is the high policy rate by the central bank, which is currently at an all-time high of 22 percent.
Sources say that the IMF has reduced the estimate of external financing from 2.7 thousand billion rupees to 1.2 thousand billion rupees, which clearly means that the government’s borrowing from commercial banks will increase further. F has estimated the domestic financing to be 6.9 thousand billion rupees, which was earlier estimated at 4.8 thousand billion rupees.
The IMF has estimated the expenditure to be 14.6 thousand billion rupees, which is 1.24 thousand billion rupees more than the budget estimate, but the development expenditure is estimated to be 782 billion rupees, which is 168 billion rupees less than the budget estimate. The budget size will reach an all-time high of Rs 15.4 trillion.
The IMF has kept the overall primary balance unchanged at 0.4 percent of GDP.